Reflections from Recent Meetings
Over the past few weeks, I’ve had the chance to sit down with several people for their review meetings. And while everyone’s situation is unique, I noticed a handful of themes kept coming up again and again. Markets have been strong, three really good years in a row, and yet people feel uncertain. Tariffs. Artificial intelligence. Inflation that doesn’t seem to slow down. And now, as of this writing, another conflict in the Middle East. So rather than write about just one topic this month, I thought it might be helpful to share a few thoughts on these themes.
Are We Due for a Market Correction?
This is the question I’ve heard more than any other lately, and honestly, it’s a fair one. After 2022’s rough stretch, the market bounced back in a big way in 2023, followed by another strong year in 2024, and another good year in 2025. Three consecutive years of double-digit returns is unusual. Based on an analysis of the S&P 500 from 1926–2025, it has happened eight times since 1926, but only three of those added a fourth year to the double-digit streak (the longest streak, five years, happened once.) So, when I get asked if a pullback is coming, my honest answer is probably yes, I just have no idea when it will happen or what the specific catalyst will be.
I want to be clear about what I’m not saying. I’m not predicting a correction. What I am saying is that markets historically do not go straight up, and a 10–15% correction at some point would be entirely normal, even healthy. When I get asked if we should move to cash or find “safe haven” assets before it happens, I’m reminded of something important: by the time a correction feels obvious, you have usually already experienced most of the damage. And if you have moved to the sidelines, you face the even harder decision of when to get back in. As I often say, you must be right twice when timing the market…and I don’t like my chances of that happening.
Our approach remains the same: stay diversified, stay disciplined, and if a meaningful pullback does come, be prepared to take advantage of it rather than run from it. Panic is almost never a good investment strategy.
AI and the Dot-Com Déjà Vu
Artificial intelligence has dominated headlines, and our meeting conversations haven’t been immune. There have been recent articles outlining how companies like Anthropic will put other software providers out of business or how white-collar jobs could be affected the most by AI in the coming years. With the incredible returns experienced by Nvidia and some other AI-heavy companies, it’s hard not to ask the question, “is this another bubble?”
During the dot-com era, there were hundreds of companies racing to define the internet. Most of them didn’t survive. But the ones that did, Amazon, Google, etc., went on to reshape the entire global economy. The technology itself wasn’t a fad. The valuations got ahead of reality for many companies. AI is real and transformative, but not every company currently riding the wave will be standing in ten years. However, what is different this time is that many of the companies riding the AI wave right now (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple) were established before AI took shape, unlike the dot-com bubble, where many of the companies were start-ups trying to take advantage of the internet boom.
So far in 2026, some of the AI stocks have struggled, but I don’t think this is a sign that AI is losing its grip on the economy, or that a bubble is about to burst. Rather, I think it’s a reflection that the “easy” gains are behind us in AI, but these companies will continue to grow, just not at the rate we’ve seen since ChatGPT first took the world by storm.
For the past few years, a huge portion of market returns came from just seven companies, the so-called Magnificent Seven. What gives me some comfort now is that market returns have started broadening beyond these seven stocks. We are now starting to see the rest of the market participate more meaningfully, including international stocks, which had been largely left behind for years. A broader, more balanced rally is a healthier rally.
Inflation Is Down. So Why Aren’t Prices Lower?
We’ve heard for two years now that inflation has “come down.” And yet every trip to the grocery store feels just as painful as it did two years ago. What gives?
Here’s the distinction that I think gets lost: inflation coming down is not the same thing as deflation. When they report that inflation has dropped from 9% to around 3%, it means the rate at which prices are rising has slowed significantly, not that prices themselves have fallen. A 3% inflation rate still means things cost more than they did last year. They just cost a little more, not a lot more.
Think of it like a car that was accelerating rapidly and has now slowed down. The car is still moving forward, still getting farther from where it started, it’s just not speeding up as fast anymore. Prices are not going back to 2019 levels. I know that’s not what anyone wants to hear, but I think it’s important to be clear-eyed about it so we can plan accordingly rather than wait for a reset that isn’t coming.
The good news is that the underlying economy remains in reasonably solid shape. Unemployment is still low, corporate earnings have generally been good, and consumer spending, while stretched, has held up. However, questions around tariffs and their eventual effect on prices and supply chains, as well as ongoing geopolitical conflict, create some uncertainty on the horizon. But uncertainty is a permanent feature of investing, not a bug in the system.
The Bottom Line
If there’s a single thread connecting these conversations, it’s this: the world feels uncertain, but it almost always does. What matters more than any headline is whether your financial plan is built to handle uncertainty, whether your portfolio reflects your actual goals and timeline, whether your cash flow is structured to give you flexibility, and whether you’re positioned to stay the course when things get bumpy.
Three strong years in a row are worth celebrating. But they do not change the fundamentals of good financial planning, which have always included building in room for the years that will not be quite so strong.
As always, if any of these topics have been on your mind and you’d like to talk through how they apply to your specific situation, don’t hesitate to reach out. That’s exactly what these conversations are for.
Schedule an introductory phone call with Mark at this link: Mark Brinser – Introductory Phone Call
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